INVITATION TO CELEBRATE

End of an Error Holiday Party

Who: Progress Augusta - serving Staunton, Waynesboro and Augusta County, a new informal, inclusive progressive social group.

What: The weather has turned cold, the euphoria of the election night has faded and normality has returned to our daily lives. With the election of Barack Obama and the end of the GW Bush era, there is much to be thankful for, and much to celebrate this holiday season. Come join our new group of friends, neighbors, political newbies, battle-hardened campaign workers, elected officials, wanna-be candidates, and veteran politicos. All points-of-view, from across of the political spectrum, are welcome. Bring a thirst and an open mind.

America was born in a tavern. We build democracy one drink at a time.

When: Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2008, 5:30pm till 7:30pm (1st Tuesday of each month going forward)

Where:

Irish Alley Restaurant & Pub

19 West Johnson St.

Staunton, VA 24401

(we will gather in the upstairs dining room)

Cost: No fees or dues. Pay as you go! Great food and drink will be available at Staunton’s newest dining establishment.

No RSVP required.

Contact: Riley Murray  

email: progressaugusta@gmail.com
Progress Augusta - serving  Augusta County, Staunton and Waynesboro, Virginia, a local chapter of the national organization, Drinking Liberally. An informal, inclusive progressive social group.

Raise your spirits while you raise your glass, and share ideas while you share a pitcher. Drinking Liberally gives like-minded, left-leaning individuals a place to talk politics. You don’t need to be a policy expert and this isn’t a book club - just come and learn from peers, trade jokes, vent frustration and hang out in an environment where it’s not taboo to talk politics.

Bars are democratic spaces - you talk to strangers, you share booths, you feel the bond of common ground. Bring democratic discourse to your local democratic space - build democracy one drink at a time.

While drinking liberally, always remember to drink responsibly, and make liberal use of designated drivers. Drinking and driving is reckless and irresponsible, Just don’t do it.

Continue reading " End of an Error Holiday Party 12/2/08! "

Barack Obama - Harrisonburg, VA

Convocation Center

James Madison University

10/28/08

Go to Blue Ridge Data for full NL video player >>>  Obama Rally - Harrisonburg Slide Show & Video

Barack packs the house…. approx. 8000 and then some…

Over-capacity crowd. 10,000+ wait in line for over 4 hours. Line control and public info a bit disorganized by JMU staff… but give them credit for pulling it off, on very short notice. Local Dems are delighted!

Very cold, windy, cloudy! BRRRRRRR!
Long lines… many old friends and made some new ones, too. Young, old, all races, rich, poor, many education levels, all walks of life. Impressed by the diverse demographics of the Obama supporters. All there for one reason — each person determined to see this once in a lifetime, Campaign for Change, achieve our shared final goal… in just one week. Awesome and damn glad to be there.

Barack makes special outdoor appearance at UREC soccer field for the 1000+ hardy, cold souls unlikely to get into the JMU Convo. The Secret Service detail and security convoy was a ballet-in-motion. Sen. Obama’s sudden outdoor appearance, was very carefully managed — a testament to these hyper-effective, focused security professionals. Well Done… to the entire security team: Feds, State, County, City and Campus.

Overflow crowd attended satellite viewing sites in Godwin Hall and Festival Ballroom.

Token rally by local Republicans, largely ignored, slightly entertaining. No harsh words, that I saw, exchanged. Virginians might be a bit more cordial, than folks in Pottsville, PA at recent McCain Rally. Yikes!

As the sun sets … Barack’s jet is ready and waiting, at the Shenandoah Valley Airport in Weyers Cave. A crowd of about fifty folks wait in the twilight changing to dusk… chanting Obama, Obama, Obama!

A Virginia State Trooper in special ops gear, carefully scans the crowd, and exchanges a bit of light banter with the mellow crowd, on a crisp cold night in Valley of Virginia. He says he looks forward to some rest and relaxation, after the stress of this long campaign. Agreed and well-deserved, Trooper!

cross-posted: Daily Kos

Continue reading " Obama Rocks the JMU Convo - Harrisonburg VA "

While John McCain and Sarah Palin attempt another course correction in their erratic journey, by turning on the charm campaign in public appearances, their surrogates are conducting the well-worn Republican Campaign of Fear: version 2008 in the Old Dominion.

Thankfully voters are seeing this for what it is… bigoted and subconsciously racist. The old “people not like you… are out to do you harm”.

Malarkey!
Virginia Democrats  are finally pushing back on typical Republican robo-calling.

Dave “Mudcat” Saunders, from Roanoke, gives Rachel Maddow of MSNBC some local insight on the tactics of negative campaigning this late in the race.

Continue reading " VA Dems push back on McCain Robo-Fear Calls "

Nearing the brink… under pressure from main-stream Republican leaders, John McCain reversed field again, trying to bring the incitement of hate speech and fear mongering back under control, in a speech earlier today.

“John McCain was booed by his own supporters during a rally on Friday after he described Barack Obama as a “decent person and a person that you do not have to be scared of as president of the United States.”

[clip]

Later, McCain was again pressed about Obama’s “other-ness” and again he refused to play ball. “I don’t trust Obama,” a woman said. “I have read about him. He’s an Arab.”

“No, ma’am,” McCain said several times, shaking his head in disagreement. “He’s a decent, family man, [a] citizen that I just happen to have disagreements with on fundamental issues and that’s what this campaign is all about.“

Full article HuffPo

Continue reading " McCain’s Reverse Play - Don’t Fear of Obama "

In a fight to the finish, in battleground Virginia, Barack Obama has gained some high ground in the middle of the political spectrum. Partisans on both sides have made their choice, it looks like it might be up to the rational thinking moderates — the central core third (~ 33%) of the electorate — to decide this election in the Old Dominion. Right now it seems they are being persuaded by Obama’s strength on economic issues. The regulatory neglect (or lack of interest) by the Bush Administration in providing reasonable oversight of our financial institutions is becoming glaringly apparent. Moderates may be thoughtfully considering that the need for a sea change in Washington, does not include John McCain, leading a third consecutive Republican term in the White House.

In a new Survey USA poll released today… overall results show that ” Democrat Barack Obama edges Republican John McCain, 51% to 45%”.

 ”McCain holds 87% of the GOP base. Obama holds 91% of the Democrat base. Independents split. McCain holds 83% of Conservatives. Obama holds 86% of Liberals. But: Obama leads by 28 points among Moderates, and on that Virginia battlefield, the contest may be decided.”

Continue reading " For Moderate Virginians - Obama leads by 28 points "

Aimee Bostwick at Star City Harbinger leads today with breaking news that the National Organization of Women (NOW) will formally endorse the Obama-Biden ticket at a press conference later today.

According to a press release from NOW, the announcement will be made today at the National Press Club around 12:30 PM.  NOW will be joined by a host of women’s rights groups including Feminist Majority PAC, Business and Professional Women/PAC, National Association of Social Workers PACE, National Congress of Black Women, and the Women’s Information Network.

This endorsement is important for a number of reasons.  The Rovian-Schmidt attack machine purposefully offered up an unqualified female candidate to take advantage of perceived dissatisfaction among women who put all their hopes on Senator Clinton.  What the McCain Campaign has failed to realize is that American women are among the smartest and most well-informed voters in the Nation.  We know when we are being manipulated.  Assuming women will flock to a woman simply because of some inherent gender sympathy is a sexist assumption of the highest order, and everyone knows what happens when you assume . . .

Continue reading " BREAKING NEWS: NOW Endorses Obama-Biden Today! "

From those wild and crazy netroots kids at Daily KOS:

Key Ring for John McCain … latest Demo apparel for the Fall Campaign.

Continue reading " Jingle for Johnny! "

Amazingly, given the fact that the Old Dominion has voted Democratic exactly once (1964) in the past fourteen presidential elections, Virginia is included in the toss-up list for the first time since 1976, when President Gerald Ford edged Democratic nominee Jimmy Carter by a mere percentage point. Virginia was the only Southern state not to vote for Carter, who became the first Deep-South President elected since Zachary Taylor in 1848. Thanks to dramatic population growth in Northern Virginia and university communities, this is not your father’s Virginia. It is a Mid-Atlantic state rather than a Southern state.

Prof. Larry Sabato - UVa Poli-Guru

Continue reading " Sabato: VA is a Toss Up & Not Southern State! "

“Goodbye from the world’s biggest polluter!”

Yep…from our “fearless leader” of the free world.

Parting shot from President Bush as he concluded his final G8 Summit today.

What more can you say? Unbelievable!

Continue reading " OMG … Can It Get Any Worse? Bush Gaffes at G8 "

“It’s the Economy… and 8 years of an increasingly unpopular President… Stupid”

Electoral Barometer Predicts Rough Weather for Republicans

A big hat tip to Cliff Garstang for the original source article from dear 'ol U Va - Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball blog. The stats geek in me made dig a little deeper into this neat long term data set.

The famous catch phrase, “It’s the Economy Stupid”, coined by Clinton campaign strategist James Carville in 1992, appears to still be prescient today. Dr. Alan Abramowitz, Professor of Political Science at Emory University, has developed an excellent analysis of long-term national election results. His prediction model appears to provide a very accurate prediction of Presidential results. His statistical analysis has found that three indicators of the national political climate have accurately predicted the outcomes of presidential elections since the end of World War II:

1. incumbent president's approval rating at mid-year
2. growth rate of the economy during the second quarter of the election year
3. length of time the president's party has held the White House.

The higher the president's approval rating and the stronger the growth rate of the economy, the more likely it is that the president's party will be victorious. However, if the president's party has controlled the White House for two terms or longer, it is less likely to be successful. Time-for-change sentiment seems to increase after eight years regardless of the president's popularity or the state of the economy.

These three factors can be combined to produce an Electoral Barometer score that measures the overall national political climate. The formula for computing this score is simply the president's net approval rating (approval minus disapproval) in the Gallup Poll plus five times the annual growth rate of real GDP minus 25 if the president's party has held the White House for two terms or longer. Mathematically, this formula can be written as:

EB = NAR + (5 x GDP) - 25

    EB= Electoral Barometer score
    NAR= Presidential Net Approval Rating
    GDP= Annual Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product

I wanted to dig a little deeper into this model. To help visualize his prediction model I have developed a linear regression plot of the Electoral Barometer (EB) score versus the popular vote margin for the incumbent president party’s candidate, based on Prof. Alan Abramowitz data set. His data set covered all the Presidential Elections from 1948 to 2004.

The strength of this prediction model (how actual voting results data fits the prediction score) is measured by the Coefficient of Determination (R-Squared ) The R-Squared value of .903 indicates that 90.3% of the variation in the popular vote margin is related to the changes in the EB score. This indicates a very strong predictive model.

Which brings us to our current situation… from Dr. Abramowitz calculations,

1. President Bush's net approval rating in the most recent Gallup Poll = minus 40%
2. Annual GDP growth rate of the economy Q2 2008 = plus 0.4 % (estimated)

current “Electoral Barometer” calculated score is a “negative 63″

Using my regression model, this predicts a popular vote margin of negative 13.75%, meaning that John McCain could lose to Barack Obama by almost 14%.

Other factors would likely close a portion of this gap, however this Barometer is fundamentally predicting some very bad weather ahead for the Republican Party.

While a majority of state electoral votes determine the winner, this popular vote prediction model gives us glimpse, maybe some insight, into the underlying will of the voters, by looking past the individual characteristics of the current candidates.

“… it appears very likely that the Republican Party is dealing with the dreaded “triple whammy” in 2008: an unpopular president, a weak economy, and a second term election. “

Will John McCain be able to beat the long-term odds?

Can Barack Obama take full advantage of the cards stacked in his favor?

Game On, for the General Election!

cross-posted;

Blue Ridge Data

Star City Harbinger 

Continue reading " When in doubt, voters sweep da bums out! "